According to @danheld, the core bet is unlimited fiat supply competing for a fixed 21 million BTC, putting Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity at the center of the trade thesis. Source: @danheld (X, Dec 11, 2025). Bitcoin’s maximum supply is hard-capped at 21 million by consensus rules, with issuance reduced via halvings every 210,000 blocks until roughly 2140. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide and BIP-42 (Bitcoin Core). Fiat money supply is elastic and can be expanded by central banks through tools like asset purchases and lending facilities, affecting purchasing power via policy and credit growth. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System education resources and IMF monetary policy primers. For trading, a fixed BTC supply means marginal demand from regulated vehicles such as US spot BTC ETFs can have outsized price impact when liquidity expands. Source: U.S. SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10, 2024 and related SEC orders. Effective tradable float may be lower than 21 million due to provably lost or long-dormant coins, reducing immediate market supply. Source: Chainalysis estimate of 2.78 to 3.79 million lost coins (2017 report). Key liquidity indicators traders monitor for BTC risk exposure include global M2 growth, USD strength via DXY, and U.S. real yields from TIPS. Source: World Bank Broad Money (M2) dataset, ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology, and U.S. Treasury real yield data. Research frameworks emphasize liquidity and real yields as major drivers of Bitcoin performance, supporting process-driven entries and sizing beyond narratives alone. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Bitcoin First (2022) and ARK Invest Bitcoin Monthly research.